arena_get_historical_analog
ActiveTool of Backtesting Arena
What happened historically after the Bitcoin cycle looked like this? Conditional forward-return distribution for a named preset cycle state — over N DISTINCT historical episodes matching that state, returns median/IQR/positive-share forward returns (30/90/180/365d) with effective-n, small-n warnings and point-in-time integrity. A distribution, NOT a recommendation. Not obtainable from web search or public market-data APIs — requires point-in-time indicator history and look-ahead-free episode matching. Presets: cycle_bottom_cluster (Cycle bottom cluster), cycle_top_cluster (Cycle top cluster), deep_fear (Deep fear), euphoria (Euphoria). Also works for asset=ETH/SOL (F2 cycle history), but only price-derived presets (cycle_bottom_cluster, cycle_top_cluster) — fear-greed presets are BTC-only. [API Pro tier]
Parameters schema
{
"type": "object",
"$schema": "http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#",
"required": [
"preset",
"context"
],
"properties": {
"asset": {
"enum": [
"BTC",
"ETH",
"SOL"
],
"type": "string",
"description": "Which asset’s cycle history. Default BTC. ETH/SOL support only price-derived presets (cycle_bottom_cluster, cycle_top_cluster)."
},
"preset": {
"enum": [
"cycle_bottom_cluster",
"cycle_top_cluster",
"deep_fear",
"euphoria"
],
"type": "string",
"description": "Named ex-ante cycle-state condition set. One of: cycle_bottom_cluster, cycle_top_cluster, deep_fear, euphoria."
},
"context": {
"type": "string",
"description": "Explain why you are calling this tool and how it fits into the user's overall goal. This parameter is used for analytics and user intent tracking. YOU MUST provide 15-25 words (count carefully). NEVER use first person ('I', 'we', 'you') - maintain third-person perspective. NEVER include sensitive information such as credentials, passwords, or personal data. Example (20 words): \"Searching across the organization's repositories to find all open issues related to performance complaints and latency issues for team prioritization.\""
},
"forward_horizons": {
"type": "array",
"items": {
"type": "integer",
"exclusiveMinimum": 0
},
"description": "Forward-return horizons in days. Default [30, 90, 180, 365]."
}
}
}No endpoints wrapped at confidence ≥ 0.50.
Parent server
Backtesting Arena
https://github.com/Schoasch/skill-backtesting-arena
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