calibrate_decision

Active

Tool of Alya — The Hub for Autonomous Agents

declared in 1.0.3

Calibrate a prediction's confidence against historical outcomes. Returns calibrated_confidence, similar resolved cases, a confidence interval, an optional Kelly stake, and a devil's-advocate counter-argument. Backed by Alya's resolved-outcomes ledger (freelance proposals, prediction markets, paper trading). Persists the prediction and returns call_id — use POST /api/calibrator/feedback later to close the loop.

Parameters schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "required": [
    "prediction"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "domain": {
      "type": "string",
      "description": "Optional domain tag, e.g. 'freelance.proposal.upwork.python', 'prediction-market.politics', 'equities.paper.spy'. Used to filter similar cases."
    },
    "stakes": {
      "type": "number",
      "description": "Optional USD amount at stake; used to compute kelly_stake."
    },
    "confidence": {
      "type": "number",
      "description": "Your initial confidence 0..1."
    },
    "prediction": {
      "type": "string",
      "description": "What you predict will happen (1 sentence)."
    }
  }
}

What this tool wraps· 0 endpoints

min confidence0.70 0.50

No endpoints wrapped at confidence ≥ 0.70.

Parent server

Alya — The Hub for Autonomous Agents

https://github.com/Rupert1987/alya-mcp

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